One of the things I can hardly resist is shopping. A few years ago, stepping out of an Orchard Road hospital immediately after a minor day surgery, I walked straight into a mall for some random purchases before the painkillers began to lose their efficacy. That is how much of a diehard shopper I am. One of the last cover stories I wrote (for Microsoft Magazine) before I bid adieu to full-time journalism was also on the retail industry -- on how technology was helping redefine the shopping experience.

 

Generally women are the ones getting on the nerves of their husbands with their shopping ways. In my instance, it is the other way round -- my wife hardly enjoys shopping.  I am an aberration! What I buy may not necessarily be what I want or use. I often end up buying things on impulse. This habit gets into overdrive particularly during an irresistible sale. 

 

Well, the annual Great Singapore Sale has just begun and the pages and pages of advertisements in newspapers are the ones that draw my first attention. The way Singaporeans are reacting to the sale may make one wonder if the country is indeed in recession. The sale started only on Friday and I have not ventured out yet, deterred by an arthritic foot that has made me walk with a limp. But the hospital I visit for my treatment is amid plush malls, so the urge is bound to get the better of me sooner or later. Great merchandise and genuine offers can be a combination that is hard to resist.

 

For more on the Great Singapore Sale, check out http://www.greatsingaporesale.com.sg/2009/eng-tourist/home.html

 

LTTE chief Prabhakaran is dead and the Tigers have been subdued. While terrorism of any form cannot be condoned, governments letting loose a reign of terror have no place in a civilized world. Sri Lankan president Rajapakse proved he was more than equal to the LTTE by killing and maiming innocent Tamil civilians under the guise of ending terror. By blocking access for even the U.N. chief and aid agencies to the troubled spots, even after eliminating the LTTE, Sri Lanka is playing it ruthlessly safe and preventing its excesses from bursting into the open.

 

Britain, the U.S. and the rest of the Western world were appalled at the savage treatment of the civilian population by the Sri Lankan forces. But they could hardly do anything more -- other than condemning the action and calling for a war crimes probe that was only scoffed at by Sri Lanka. There was no talk of sanctions against Sri Lanka and of isolating it, possibly because they may not have wanted to exacerbate the situation for the Tamils there.

 

Only India could have made a difference but it did not have the spine to act tough. The only argument Indians liked to dangle against any intervention was that the LTTE killed Rajiv Gandhi and they deserved to be wiped out. But the issue is the plight of innocent Tamils, not that of the LTTE.

 

What could have deterred India is the bitter lesson learnt from its IPKF misadventure.  Going in to promote peace, the Indian soldiers ended up fighting the Tamils with the Sri Lankan army. Now that the Sri Lankan army has won the battle against the LTTE they have achieved what they could not do with Indian support. They can now claim their military might is superior to that of India.

 

The LTTE has finally acknowledged the death of their leader. But what baffles me is why he did not kill himself before the Army shot him dead. It is possible that Sri Lanka is spreading lies to take full credit for the military victory.

 

One monster -- Prabhakaran -- has been eliminated and another -- Rajapakse -- has emerged.

 

Hyderabad, a Worthy Winner in Low-Scoring but Tough Final

I am going to allow myself the luxury of dishing out some IPL-related trivia.

Hyderabad and Bangalore are two of my favourite cities in India. I lived in Hyderabad for four years, so it holds a special allure for me. I like Bangalore for more than its lovely weather -- I have some good friends there. It was thus a final which would have made me happy irrespective of which way it swung.

But there is no question that Hyderabad (the Deccan Chargers) were worthy winners against Bangalore (the Royal Challengers) in a low scoring, but tough, final that was over just moments ago.

Hyderabad was not among my favourite four IPL teams as I appeared to have ignored the might of Adam Gilchrist. All the other three semi-finalists were among the quartet I plumped for.

Interestingly, three of the four teams that qualified for the knockout phase were those that carried the names of southern India cities – Hyderabad, Bangalore and Chennai. Delhi was the exception, but they were eliminated in the semi-finals. It does not matter they were helped by foreign and North Indian players, it just shows their sponsors/owners played their cards right to reap commercial success.

Veteran players were the real heroes of this edition of the IPL with Mathew Hayden and Gilchrist emerging as the top two scorers though they both failed with the bat in their last innings of the tournament. Sachin Tendulkar, too, was among the high-scoring batsmen though Mumbai had a forgettable outing.

Anil Kumble reserved his best for the final and nearly won it for Bangalore by taking four wickets, including that of the tournament’s danger-men – Gilchrist (who was clean bowled for a duck) and Symonds. Team-mates Rahul Dravid and R Uthappa had the opportunity to take the team through but they failed to rise to the occasion.

Well done, Hyderabad!

-- G Joslin Vethakumar 

 

Journalists are a funny breed. They hardly have a mind of their own, thriving mostly on what other people tell them. Without the "he said" dope they get high on, they would be without a job as well. And they think they are a part of the intelligentsia!!

 

The Straits Times began this week with a report on Monday telling investors that the stock markets would face roadblocks aplenty. Of course they relied on the opinions of simpletons going by the name of market analysts to dish out the commentary.  The markets have just closed in Singapore, racing to a seven-month high with solid gains for the third day in succession. I am not complaining, though, as I used my hunch and my own research to dabble in some reliable plays for some modest profits.

 

Journalists and analysts are birds of the same feather. They both assume that bad news is good news. So they keep harping on the theme of a slumping economy, predicting dire days ahead even amid all the signs of recovery we see. Let's not forget that stock markets recover long before the economy mends.

 

The simple fact is that markets are on fire because of the heavy liquidity they see. Institutional investors are pumping money by truckloads into the markets so as not to be left out of the broadbased rally.

 

This morning, while watchiing CNBC, an analyst focused on China, raised an interesting analogy of water being pumped into a lake. "There is a limit to the amount of water it can take. Beyond that, we will end in disastrous floods." So, he said he would stay away from the Chinese markets. Another market watcher at the same session jumped in to say "why would we want to get into a speeding train. Let us wait for it to slow down and then board it."

 

They had been saying this for the last three months -- a period when markets worldwide had a roaring run surging by more than 50%. So, those who listened to them missed out on the glorious opportunity to make big bucks.

 

Analogies are good to listen to and may make a good impact on the audience. But when you think deep, you will realize that they can be fallacious and do not apply to all scenarios. What is good for the lake and the train is just good for that, nothing beyond! The journalist talking to these two "learned" men with a hidden agenda (to drive the markets down to time their entry, even if this sounds too simplistic or wild) was so bowled over by the analogies that she added her bit to the gloom by saying "let's not end up in tears." Most journalists do not have the depth of knowledge to go beyond the script.

 

As prudent investors, we all realize that markets are not a bottomless pit and that funds know when to stop to stem any breach. They keep taking profits periodically and shuffling their funds and portfolios depending on how oversold or overbought a counter is.

 

The joke is that the two analysts felt a big correction was likely in the next quarter or two. I couldn't help laughing out loud (or LOL in chat-speak!). A three-to-six month horizon for correction? And you want investors to keep their pockets tight until then? That was the craziest piece of junk I have heard from any analyst of late. People will have made millions by then. A pity I do not remember their names -- one of them is an American based in Singapore who loves China. I will update this post when I remember their names.

 

While I have a high risk appetite, these days I try to err on the side of caution. My strategy for the next two days is to stay on the sidelines and trim the positions I have so as to be ready for another push next week. I am convinced that what we are seeing is much more than a bear market rally -- a rally that is sustainable but with some bumps along the way.

  

 

 

The Indian electorate has put paid to the prime ministerial ambitions ofJayalalitha and Mayawati -- at least for now. The collective wisdom of our people has saved us the embarrassment of having one of them grab the same seat occupied by Dr Manmohan Singh, easily one of the world's most qualified heads of government.

 

But then when Pratibha Patil could see herself firmly cushioned in the comfort of the Rashtrapathi Bhavan as a poor successor to Dr Abdul Kalam, why cannot these two women with criminal inclinations nurture such aspirations! We are a democracy, after all!

 

If Jayalalitha's party and the coalition had delivered a winning performance, she would have had no qualms staking her claim to the prime ministership.

 

Anyway, the people have voted against her, so let me keep such conjectures aside.

 

The results have generally been to my liking, but some undesirable elements have made it to Parliament -- Karunanidhi's son Alagiri and Varun Gandhi despite his open vitriol against minorities. What is particularly disconcerting is the margin by which he won the election -- by 2.81 lakhs. But then Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi won by even more staggering margins and BJP sympathisers may find this unwelcome.

 

That said, the list of criminals in not just politics, but also in Parliament, keeps growing. And this is not a happy augury for the country in the long run.

 

 

Wake-up Call for Singapore Church Over AWARE Saga

Now that the dust has settled over the AWARE (Association of Women for Action and Research) saga, there are some lessons to be learnt, particularly for the Anglican church in Singapore.

Lesson No.1 (for the church): Do not use the pulpit for propaganda. In this instance. Pastor Derek Hong of the Church of Our Saviour, exhorted the women in his congregation to back the then new AWARE chief, Josie Lau, against the old guard that appeared to be defending homosexuality.

Until I started seeing Josie Lau's name in the press I only thought I had a female-sounding first name (Joslin). Now I realize women carry even the shorter version of my name -- Josy (which is how all my close friends and relatives call me). As with Jocelyn, the difference is only in spelling: Josy – Josie, with the pronunciation being the same). Before I digress and ramble any further, let me move on to ---

---Lesson No. 2 (for the old guard of AWARE): While the old guard may have rallied their supporters to stage a comeback, they must realize it is not a victory for the philosophies they espouse. They are back because the public found the intrusion of the church into the secular group offensive and revolted against it. Soon after the new executive committee was dethroned, the government suspended AWARE’s Comprehensive Sexuality Education (CSE) programme in schools. It was a programme through which the old guard of AWARE appeared to encourage homosexuality.

That was the programme that prompted Pastor Derek to make the pulpit call to rally behind the new AWARE leadership and bring about change. Six women from his church congregation had earlier been elected to the AWARE executive committee. The old guard, inter alia, found nothing wrong with homosexuality while the new custodians of AWARE wanted the gay agenda stamped out. Now that the Government itself has scrapped the AWARE programme in schools, it is a slap on the face of the old guard.

On principle, the church may stand vindicated. But using the pulpit to give a religious colour to a secular entity meant to serve the cause of women across the board is not acceptable. The Bishop himself came out openly to say that religion and the church should stay out of the issue. Unfortunately, supporters of the old guard played up the religion card, using the saga to slam Christianity with the active backing of The Straits Times which ad nauseum devoted pages and pages of coverage to the silly issue. Newspapers are a part of the intelligentsia and are not expected to sacrifice objectivity and overreact to situations.

That said, while the old guard may be back in the saddle they need to realize that their return is not an endorsement of their schemes which to some like me are deviant. Neither the church nor AWARE nor any entity should do anything that may harm the secular or moral fabric of the country. Let's lead life the normal way -- giving individuals the freedom of choice but not going out of our way to encourage aberrations.

-- G Joslin Vethakumar 

Accuses Coach of Olympic medal-winning TT Team of Lack of Integrity and Character

Why is the Government Mollycoddling Her? But the Singapore Press has no Spine to Write about it

Singapore MP Lee Bee Wah seems to be revelling in periodically taking a cerebral holiday. Importantly, she must be enjoying enormous clout with the Singapore Government as she was brought in as president of the Singapore Table Tennis Association just two months before the Beijing Olympics.

With the table tennis team already expected to win independent Singapore’s first Olympic medal, she was given the opportunity to take credit for it and hog all the glory that eventually came with it.

She did that by depriving the real heroes of that historic win of a share in the pie by unceremoniously showing the manager and the coach of the team the exit even before the victorious contingent returned to Singapore from Beijing.

Singaporeans reacted with horror and she then tried to make amends for her haughty, inane stand by putting forth a simple “sorry”. The coach had to go anyway.

Now, the nation’s sports awards have been announced and the Singapore table-tennis team won the “Team of the Year” award. No one was named for the “Coach of the Year” award though Liu Guodong should have been a worthy winner.

Liu was brought in from China to coach and help the team win a Olympic medal and to dump him after the mission was accomplished showed how ungrateful Singapore was.

Even more galling is Lee Wee Bah's hint that Liu was not considered for the award because he lacked integrity, but she did not substantiate the charge. Liu was understandably aghast and angrily, rightly so, asked her to explain the accusation.

Singapore’s past and current prime ministers have the habit of suing people who make allegations against them without proof. If Lee Bee Wah has the evidence, why are they not asking her to set the record straight? Was the decision to overlook Liu for the award purely based on personal acrimony? If not, the government and Lee Bee Wah have a moral obligation to come clean.

-- G Joslin Vethakumar 

A Roaring Day at the Markets Proves How They are Prone to Misguiding Investors

One of the best lessons I have learnt from my experience trading in stocks is to never listen to analysts. This morning most news channels in Asia, including Channel News Asia and CNBC, quoted some of them as saying that investors can brace themselves for weak stock markets as they pause for some breather after a frenetic run.

I did not need any clairvoyance to think that their prophecies will be treated with contempt by the markets. Less than an hour after their grim projections, the markets in Asia opened to a roaring start, picking up momentum along the way to finish the day at highs that will have had them squirming in their seats.

By the time investors ended up laughing all the way to the bank (unless you were among those motley fools still paying heed to the analysts' opinions, standing by the sidelines and missing the fun), all regional markets had recorded a seven-month high, as you will see in the report here -- http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20090504/tbs-business-us-markets-global-7318940.html .

While they show no remorse for their unfailing notoriety in giving misleading guidance, they are a shameless bunch and get lyrical after the markets make them a laughing stock. In fact, even when they goof it up they think they were right and only the markets were wrong. :-)

Even last Thursday they had dire predictions and the markets proved them wrong with a strong showing.

If you are a sensible investor who does not throw caution to the winds, you will be better off ignoring the analysts to avoid getting distracted.

n  G Joslin Vethakumar

 

Often it is the U.S. advising its people against travelling to trouble-prone countries. Now it may be the turn of the rest of the world to impose such an embargo on the U.S. Perhaps caution is the word, not embargo. Singapore has already advised its nationals against travelling to the U.S., with a firm "no-no" to Mexico.  Only 9/11 possibly elicited such caution in recent memory.

 

Until about a year ago, I was visiting the U.S. almost once every three or four months. Thanks to the economic slowdown, that has long ground to a halt. And I lived in Mexico (Monterrey) for more than six months in 1999, working on a project for Axtel with Hewlett-Packard. I made some great friends there (Mexico) and was waiting for an opportunity to take my family there on a holiday. Now that will have to wait given the ban on any travel to Mexico. We wouldn't want to risk being quarantined! In any case, I did not have any near-term plans for that.

 

Even Europe (where racist rascals such as Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary exist even now -- see my blog entry posted yesterday) faces such a threat, with more swine flu cases being reported across the continent.

 

But these are transient phases as soon the swine flu will fade out -- just as SARS did in 2003. While China and Hong Kong were floundering with it, Singapore dealt with it very sternly and efficiently to prevent it from assuming dangerous, epidemic/pandemic proportions. SARS was a tragedy beyond words -- those hospitalised (including doctors and nurses) died a lonely death as no visitors were allowed to meet them to prevent the spread of SARS. The other measures included strictly monitoring those affected and their families through cameras installed in each of their homes.

 

I have serious doubts about the abilities of the Western governments to deal with the current crisis with such an iron hand -- given that they very loosely talk about human rights even in the face of rising crime rates. I hope better sense will prevail over madness!